“Coal and iron ore are the two key bulk commodities transported via railways. Repeated disruptions in the Naxal-hit areas have affected the traffic of these commodities considerably. Our tonnage target could not be met in the first quarter,” a senior official at the ministry said.”
Of the 226 million tons projected, the Railways were only able to transport 218. A 4% Naxal disruption rate?
Of all the huffing and puffing at the cabinet minister level regarding the Naxal threat, it surprisingly, Union Minister of New and Renewable Energy Dr. Farooq Abdullah that really has the opportunity to make an impact on the problem. To this end, he has declared “all possible assistance would be extended for setting up Solar, Mini-Hydal and Wind energy projects in these areas.” This could prove to be the only winning strategy.
Why? Unlike roads and rail transportation platforms (on which billions have been spent with little or no progress), decentralized energy platforms aren’t reliant on a centralized urban hubs.
Nor are they open to disruption. Only hijacking. And that makes all the difference in the world.
In the past few days, Naxals have launched a concentrated cluster of attacks in Chhatisgarh. This began with a declaration of a two day bandh in remembrance of Rajkumar and has gained momentum:
Azad Cherukuri alias Rajkumar was a senior most member of the core Naxal hierarchy. He had been in hiding for the last four months. He was taken out in an operation by the Andhra Pradesh intelligence service.
While a counterinsurgency/counterterrorism coup, his death will have very little impact, if any, on the day to day functioning of the ecosystem.
Mexican drug cartels are further adopting the tactic of the bandh. This time:
Yesterday the army arrested the Monterrey-area boss of the Zetas, known as El Tory, and, in an effort to free him, his Zeta operatives set up 30 roadblocks all over the city which completely shut it down.
While the operational capabilities of the Zetas to set up thirty roadblocks so quickly is somewhat impressive, to me it only reveals that they have a hidden army of street rateros (punks) in place all over the city who, at a moment’s notice, can be ordered to hijack city buses and tractor trailers.
I was quoted in this short piece in the U.S. based magazine (Atlanta region) on the Naxal problem. Nice to see an out-of-the-box take reach the media.
Much thanks to Alakananda Mookerjee for reaching out.
India, in its effort to drive economic growth (using a fundamentally flawed development model), has removed one of the key control systems that has thus far dampened the effect of global instability upon both the country and its citizens.
In effect, the government has flung the average Indian to the winds of the highly unstable global hydrocarbon market. This is an industry plagued by limited resources (Jeff Rubin) and security threats (John Robb).
The immediate pain will be felt by consumers: effective Friday midnight, you will have to shell out Rs 3.50 a litre more for petrol, Rs 2 for diesel, Rs 3 for kerosene and Rs 35 for each cylinder of cooking gas.
This follows the Centre’s decision to decontrol pricing of motor fuels and prune the dole on kitchen fuels to check losses of state-run oil marketing companies and reduce its subsidy burden.
Energy drives the entirety of the rest of the ecosystem. Cheap, plentiful energy yields growth and prosperity (though societal structure has radically concentrated this process). Unstable, expensive energy halts growth and encourages churn . (Refer to the work of Joseph Tainter for more on this.)
It’s not so much that prices will increase (economies can adapt within a certain envelope), it’s the instability that matters. Unfortunately, the decision seems to have been made without any firm understanding of this fact:
Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee on Monday said the the hike in prices of petroleum products will have some inflationary impact in the short-term but price pressures will moderate from the middle of July.
Mukherjee’s prediction is predicated on energy prices staying constant. This is simply bizarre given that his decision removed the ability to do exactly that.
Also, since Nepal is totally dependent on India for its energy, the ripples from this decision will cascade across borders.
Naxalite spokesperson Azad said, “We appeal to all democratic forces to unite, oppose and militantly resist the continuous sell-out of the country’s interests to imperialistsharks. Time is running out. Unless we act collectively against the disastrous policies of the traitorous UPA government and various state governments we cannot prevent the whole of India from becoming a Bhopal.”
I have long argued that the Naxal strategy of milking mining corporations through extortion will reach a tipping point – where the corporations gain enough traction to where the adivasis are connected to the state (or corporation) and associate it with their welfare. At that point, we will see a significant and concentrated effort on disrupting the mine system, rather than just placing a tax on it. A bandh.
Are we there yet? Probably not. This is probably just opportunistic capitalization on the buzz surrounding the Bhopal verdict. But it is coming.
A tangental Maoist group, the ‘People’s Committee Against Police Atrocities’ was immediately linked to the attack. It is unsurprising that group is comprised of a very small tightly knit social network (familial relationship):
“CBI has declared a reward of Rs one lakh each for information leading to the arrest of three prominent accused – Umakant Mahto, resident of village Banksole, Manoj alias Bapi Mahto, resident of Rasua village and Asit Mahto, resident of Krishnanagar village,” CBI spokesperson Harsh Bhal said.
(Emphasis mine.)
This time, the units (the Central Reserve Police Force, the Railway Protection Force, Border Security Force, National Security Guard and the Indo-Tibetan Border Police, and Central Industrial Police Force) are buying, at the cost of about ~$70 million:
