Bangalore has been hit with the same type of attack we have seen in several cities now as dissidents continue to look for the social systempunkt.

• Several low intensity bombs in rapid succession in seven locations across the city.
• Some degree of network analysis was applied since 2-3 bombs were along the very critical Hosur Road.
• Should the organization’s network analysis ability grow more sophisticated, the yield from such bombings would be exponentially greater.
• No word on who conducted the attacks, but all open-source indicators point to HuJI.
• There is a market difference from earlier attacks: instead of religious infrastructure, economic nodes were hit such as construction sites, stores, and bus stops.

As many know, work is paused on this blog while I am hard at work on an Indian Security book proposal. Lots of interest. It has a section on Gandhi’s concept of swadeshi. At its most basic level the idea was focused on nation-state self sufficiency (swaraj), but Gandhi had a deeper understanding at the micro-local level. Lots of room to advance a rich thread of thought. It will become increasingly relevant as the global system begins cascading, especially in India.

Looking to publish an article on the topic in the next month or so.

The Gujjars achieved victory, earting a quota, and set the stage for insurgency-as-politicking. Total cost on their part was minimal, other than lost wages.

Total cost born by the country? Over $1.75 billion.

“The major blows fell on the railways and tourism industry. Also, the disruption of railway freight traffic caused production delays in many parts of the country,” Jindal said.
“The figures do not include the losses of property and damages done to railway tracks,” he added.

More from the Gujjar insurgency:

A battery set, four loudspeakers and a microphone have been installed by local villagers and attached to an electricity pole along the Delhi-Mumbai railway track.

The announcement system which was till now was used to disseminate general information in the area, is now frequently utilised to check the location of security squads, who have been deputed to man all the exit and entry routes to the fields…

Small cheap hacks to infrastructure to coopt it for your own needs is a sign of a very smart movement.

Gujjar’s tactics are evolving beyond train and road systems disruption , which they learned swiftly last summer

• Hydra like behavior: When train routes are cut off by the emplacement of a tent on the train tracks, security forces respond by tearing down the tent. When they return, hundreds more are placing multiple tents to cut off the railways.
• Slaving state forces to their own ends: Elaborate distractions are set up (such as the tent cut off) while small groups destroy infrastructure elsewhere. Police are now attempting to guard hundreds of miles of railway tracks.
• Small organized groups are charged with rapidly rotating road shutdowns as pioneered in Kolkata .
• Cutting off Dausa’s water pipeline - the first attack on this system. Tens of thousands without water in the summer’s heat for at least two days.

In short, they are very much inside the state’s OODA loop, rapidly out thinking their enemy and costing the state millions of dollars a day.

So far, the Gujjar bandh of railway systems has cost the Indian Railways upwards of $600,000 as 50,000 passengers are unable to travel. Taking note, the insurgency hopes to grow the bandh to a city-wide level in Delhi.

In response, call centers operating out of the hotzone have begun taking precautions, some more likely to succeed. These are built on the assumption that hyperlocal resources are the only ones able to be leveraged by the firm to build value:

• Putting employees up in hotels near the office.
• Providing bedding for lower echelons to sleep in the office itself.
• Storing food, water, and diesel for power generators in case of disruption.
• Placing redundancy centers on alert in case primary centers go offline.

than others, where the definition of "local" expands to include employee residences:

• Hiring cab companies to use alternate routes and ferry employees when safe.

Cab companies will be likely to avoid major troubled routes - highways, bridges - but will only provide impetus for more distributed action by the Gujjar insurgency. The second day will likely be worse than the first.

The ad-hoc Gujjar insurgency has a track record of pioneering systems disruption in India, especially with a focus on the railway system. Last year, the group almost managed to seal Delhi off by disconnecting 17 critical routes with hand tools. This time, in the state of Rajasthan, they have taken a bridge offline (also with hand tools) and prevented railway officials from reconnecting the section of track by staging a 3,000 person sit in.

At least 20 trains have been canceled so far on that route. Given the tightly coupled nature of and strictly followed timetable, this had lead to a cascading overloads. Neighboring state of MP has 29 trains diverted, another 17 canceled to prevent total overload. Taking note of this development, the Gujjar’s have staged sit-ins on highways (also bridges, to prevent rapid rerouting).

What started in Rajasthan has since spread along highway, railway, and media networks and is now encircling Delhi. The location of this insurgency is critical. Those protesters around the nation’s center of power have not only cut off railway routes, but are also threatening to prevent the passage of critical commodities to the city

Seven explosions in the space of 20 minutes targeted physical religious infrastructure in Jaipur, northwest india, in a continued attempt to find and exploit the social systempunkt . Significant push/pull at the federal and state level has resulted as politicians and state machinery whirs up for damage control.

The Indian government continues its full backing of the open source counterinsurgency approach:

Subramaniam said the Centre was in full agreement with Chhattisgarh in countering the naxal menace. All Naxal documents collected from the affected areas suggested that their leadership has exhorted the cadre to annihilate all resistance to their undergound movement, he said.

“Situation is of considerable concern both to the Centre and state. Policemen are not ready to step into the forests. Though 17,000 posts are sanctioned for anti-naxal force, the state government is finding it very difficult to fill them. That is why the self-defence force was organised to save people from becoming sitting ducks for the Naxals,” he said.

Why? This is the cheapest strategy for the central and state government, both of whom are focusing their efforts on development. The larger picture, as the battle rages in the Supreme Court, is that those alienated by the government in Naxal affected areas are rapidly finding out that the justice systems of the Indian government are not concerned with their welfare.

I will be briefing an audience of tier-one academics on Saturday in Maryland. The brief is titled “The Imminent Naxalite Onslaught.” In it, I tie together the various trend lines touched on this weblog and project forward. Initial audience feedback has been phenomenal with plenty of demand for a book.

If you are in the area, feel free to email me. Will be in the area from Wednesday to Sunday.