Civil aviation is growing at 18 percent annually and is projected to become a $5.6 billion dollar industry by the end of this year. An input of 400 pilots is needed to maintain this growth, but the private training industry is only able to output 100. Demand created by 80 million passengers in 2015 will necessitate 11,026 pilots at that time. This means India will require an additional 6,000 pilots in the next eight years.
Given the lack of private sector talent, private airlines are turning to the military. Indian Air Force (IAF) aviators earn between Rs. 25,000 and Rs. 40,000 a month. The private sector is able to lure them away by offering pay increases of up to 1,000 percent. The IAF is authorized 12,128 officers, but is currently operating with 88 percent of that number and is lacking bodies to fill 600 of its 3,278 pilot slots. Just under ten percent, or 300 pilots have left in the last three years alone.
The Army is authorized 46,615 officers for its 1.13 million soldiers but operates with 75 percent. The amount of officers applying for early retirement has steadily increased by anywhere from 20 to 40 percent every year since 2002. Over 3,000 have applied in past three years, 950 this year alone, and approximately half were approved.
The worst-hit areas are lieutenants, captains and majors. This is alarming, given that highly trained small unit leaders are vital in waging a successful counterinsurgency campaign.
It is important to note that this decline in retention will increase and expand as India’s military industrial complex slowly boots up from the wreckage of the public sector monopoly.
