Pakistan tried to do the same thing with ISI. (In that instance, however, the spectre was radicalism rather than an allegiance to the drug cartels.) All it managed to do was turn loose a bunch of experienced operatives with the training, inclination, and imperative to take advantage of the opium money in Western Pakistan.

A better option, is to keep those dirty cops on the books, at least that way, you can monitor them to some degree, shape their actions, and use them in disinformation operations. By throwing them out, you lose the entire incentive/disincentive structure altogether, creating a huge void within which these actors thrive.

Bookmark It

That’s a rough total of about Rs. 250,000 ($5,355.63) over three years.

Bookmark It

Some 61 trucks loaded with over 300 tons of explosives have gone missing in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh, a senior police official said Friday.

Classic. Bureaucrat claims its not his fault:

“We hand over the explosives to those who have the license. And they then dispatch it on their truck. Now, whatever happens to that explosive thereafter, we are not responsible for that,” Y.C. Upadhyay of the company said.

300 tons of actual explosives (assuming even a big part of that is usable, and is effectively distributed among component groups) is enough to turn the tide on the conflict. (For a larger, full scale conflict, for example, Iraq’s insurgents probably used something in the range of 200,000 tons.)

(H/T Charles)

Bookmark It

“The Bangalore Police received credible inputs to the effect that the ISI had engaged Dawood Ibrahim and through his accomplice, Chotta Shakeel, to engage Maoists, that is Naxalite leaders in India and instigate them to commit terrorist acts,” said Shankar Bidari, the city’s Police Commissioner.

Altaf from Dakshina Kannada district and Vinay Kumar from the Hassan district  were allegedly authorized to  pay the Maoists to commit terrorist acts in India. The police claims that money had been transferred to Hyderabad for this purpose – and that 4 lakhs had already been paid to the Maoists. The police also believes that  visas and tickets to Dubai from Hyderabad had also been arranged for Maoist leaders  from Andhra Pradesh.”

In contrast to legacy terrorism (ideologically motivated, big target focused ), modern warfare is driven in a large part by the global market (much more complex, much less of an academic exercise).

Naxals have traditionally enabled other insurgencies in the country, including terrorists, via keystoning (ensuring it goes untouched by the authorities, facilitating the actions of independent actors) a black market network that spans the country and beyond.

It is no surprise then, to readers of this blog anyway, that the key factor in any linkages between Dawood Ibrahim’s D-Company and Naxals is the exchange of cash and benefits.

Bookmark It

Students from the Indian Institutes of Technology and Science collaborated on the project, and built an initial prototype at $47. This is in stark contrast to the traditional approach – the IITs and IIS’s generally act as express trains out of the country or as a pipeline for knowledge worker outsourcing.

The next step is to unlock this entrepreneurial capacity throughout the country, as I outlined here.

Bookmark It

“Mainly due to frequent bandhs called by naxal organizations and also due to stoppage of work because of threats meted out to the workforce engaged in coal production and transportation.”

Bookmark It

“Coal and iron ore are the two key bulk commodities transported via railways. Repeated disruptions in the Naxal-hit areas have affected the traffic of these commodities considerably. Our tonnage target could not be met in the first quarter,” a senior official at the ministry said.”

Of the 226 million tons projected, the Railways were only able to transport 218. A 4% Naxal disruption rate?

Bookmark It

Why? Unlike roads and rail transportation platforms (on which billions have been spent with little or no progress), decentralized energy platforms aren’t reliant on a centralized urban hubs.

Nor are they open to disruption. Only hijacking. And that makes all the difference in the world.

Bookmark It

• Attacked a Congress leader’s house in Chhatisgarh, in conjunction with a raid on a nearby police station. They killed his brother-in-law and father.
• Blew up a bridge.
• Destroyed a railway line.
• Destroyed a police station, as well as another in Orissa.

Bookmark It

Azad Cherukuri alias Rajkumar was a senior most member of the core Naxal hierarchy. He had been in hiding for the last four months. He was taken out in an operation by the Andhra Pradesh intelligence service.

While a counterinsurgency/counterterrorism coup, his death will have very little impact, if any, on the day to day functioning of the ecosystem.

Bookmark It

Yesterday the army arrested the Monterrey-area boss of the Zetas, known as El Tory, and, in an effort to free him, his Zeta operatives set up 30 roadblocks all over the city which completely shut it down.

While the operational capabilities of the Zetas to set up thirty roadblocks so quickly is somewhat impressive, to me it only reveals that they have a hidden army of street rateros (punks) in place all over the city who, at a moment’s notice, can be ordered to hijack city buses and tractor trailers.

Bookmark It

Much thanks to Alakananda Mookerjee for reaching out.

Bookmark It

In effect, the government has flung the average Indian to the winds of the highly unstable global hydrocarbon market. This is an industry plagued by limited resources (Jeff Rubin) and security threats (John Robb).

The immediate pain will be felt by consumers: effective Friday midnight, you will have to shell out Rs 3.50 a litre more for petrol, Rs 2 for diesel, Rs 3 for kerosene and Rs 35 for each cylinder of cooking gas.

This follows the Centre’s decision to decontrol pricing of motor fuels and prune the dole on kitchen fuels to check losses of state-run oil marketing companies and reduce its subsidy burden.

Energy drives the entirety of the rest of the ecosystem. Cheap, plentiful energy yields growth and prosperity (though societal structure has radically concentrated this process). Unstable, expensive energy halts growth and encourages churn . (Refer to the work of Joseph Tainter for more on this.)

It’s not so much that prices will increase (economies can adapt within a certain envelope), it’s the instability that matters. Unfortunately, the decision seems to have been made without any firm understanding of this fact:

Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee on Monday said the the hike in prices of petroleum products will have some inflationary impact in the short-term but price pressures will moderate from the middle of July.

Mukherjee’s prediction is predicated on energy prices staying constant. This is simply bizarre given that his decision removed the ability to do exactly that.

Also, since Nepal is totally dependent on India for its energy, the ripples from this decision will cascade across borders.

Bookmark It

Naxalite spokesperson Azad said, “We appeal to all democratic forces to unite, oppose and militantly resist the continuous sell-out of the country’s interests to imperialistsharks. Time is running out. Unless we act collectively against the disastrous policies of the traitorous UPA government and various state governments we cannot prevent the whole of India from becoming a Bhopal.”

I have long argued that the Naxal strategy of milking mining corporations through extortion will reach a tipping point – where the corporations gain enough traction to where the adivasis are connected to the state (or corporation) and associate it with their welfare. At that point, we will see a significant and concentrated effort on disrupting the mine system, rather than just placing a tax on it. A bandh.

Are we there yet? Probably not. This is probably just opportunistic capitalization on the buzz surrounding the Bhopal verdict.  But it is coming.

Bookmark It

“CBI has declared a reward of Rs one lakh each for information leading to the arrest of three prominent accused – Umakant Mahto, resident of village Banksole, Manoj alias Bapi Mahto, resident of Rasua village and Asit Mahto, resident of Krishnanagar village,” CBI spokesperson Harsh Bhal said.

(Emphasis mine.)

Bookmark It

• 119 Tata light armored troop carriers

• 98 Mahindra Rakshak bullet-proof light vehicles
• night vision devices for rifles
• 146 automatic grenade launchers
• 47,000 grenades from Rosoboron Export of Russia
• laser range finders from Slovenian company Fotono
• 59,000 light-weight, bullet-proof jackets
• 1,000 pistols
• 800 Swiss-made SIG Sauer assault rifles
• 380 automatic grenade launchers and related ammunition

Bookmark It

West Bengal, and Jharkhand have built their own units prior to this.

Bookmark It

Michael thinks this was not the work of the Naxals:

The more I think about it, the more I believe that the Naxalites were not responsible for the recent train derailment. It contradicts their modus operandi. They do not do terrorism. And they have denied responsibility. Even when they fuck up, they admit responsibility.

I’m not so sure. While I agree that the inadvertently massive body count was not the work of the ‘Naxals proper’ (a hierarchical ideologically-bound organization), I do believe it was conducted under the auspices of the Naxal umbrella. As I’ve described before, the structure of the organization looks like this:

A majority of the activity driving the Naxalite movement forward comes from the black market that the Maoist hierarchy underpins and protects. This is why, despite calls for all out assault on polls to show just how strong the movement is, most profit-motivated participants in this illicit network continued about their daily business – slowly eroding the ability of the nation-state to conduct any activity in the regions where they generate profit from illicit trade.

This seems to be supported (again) by the facts on the ground:

An intelligence report submitted to West Bengal CM has pointed to the involvement of a renegade faction of the Maoist-backed People’s Committee Against Police Atrocities (PCPA) in the Gyaneshwari Express sabotage on Friday.

“The Manikpara Lodhasuli unit has turned renegade and does things on its own. Most of the murders and assaults in the last few months were not sanctioned by the Maoist central committee,” said a source. “It’s likely that the top leadership did not know about the derailment plan.”

The Maoist leadership has little control over the group that has turned to extortion.

Bookmark It

An inspection engine is believed to have piloted the Ranchi-Hatia Express down the same track at 12.37pm. No damage was reported then.

The derailment occurred at 1:15 am, a full 12 hours after the last check.

REAL TIME INFORMATION

Given how just in time this transportation system is now, with up-to-the-minute computer controlled management of train dispatch and scheduling, it cannot operate without a real-time view of its environment. This disconnect directly contributed to the huge body count in this particular instance (knowing that the Jnaneswari was off the tracks could have halted the goods train – there was a gap of a full five minutes). For example, this hole can be filled through the use of aerial surveillance (faster) or sensors (more real-time and distributed).

As it stands, the Indian Railway has effectively accelerated and increased the load on the system using 21′st century technology while relying on an information process from the 19′th.

Bookmark It

• Roads. More resilient given that roads are designed to streamline travel, but not necessarily replace driving on dirt. The exception is unnavigable terrain – such as bodies of water or densely packed forest.  Naxals rely on IEDs (to hit the vehicle, not the road), fallen trees (harder to go over) or blowing up bridges to disrupt this system.

• Trains. In contrast, the railway network is designed to replace navigating the uncertain nature of terrain. While the vehicle is less of the target, the network itself becomes more of one. Unfortunately, this makes it extremely unresilient and prone to even minor tweaks to the system sending it non-linear.

In the case of  the Jnaneswari Express, Naxals removed about 50 feet of pandrol clips (designed to hold the track down, picture below) to achieve a instability at high speeds, and then removed a foot long section of track in order to generate a catastrophic event. This is 51 feet of affected track, on a route spanning hundreds of miles.

The Jnaneswari fishtailed but was able to come to a stop with only a few derailed cars, though they came to rest on opposing tracks. However, the system immediately cascaded, as a high speed goods train was approaching from the other side, did not have time to stop and was not informed of the original incident. It hit the cars from the Jnaneswari that lay in its path. 100 are dead so far.

Note. While the sabotage was designed to derail, it would not have been a mass casualty event. Unfortunately, if not now, this kind of cascading failure would have resulted at some point or the other.

Bookmark It

The Delhi Metro, (while breathlessly reported by the New York Times as a testament to India arriving on the international stage) is a convenience (by no means a necessity) for certain tiers of society, but for others is just another effort that has squandered billions on an unsustainable system (which will never have enough carrying capacity, or be accessible to enough people).

Embedding high speed, low capacity, extremely expensive (the Delhi Metro costs $7 billion) transportation systems does not make sense if the architecture of these megacities fundamentally does not match up. (India’s cities are not comprised of business and residential districts the way New York City, for example, is. There is no rush hour in two distinct directions. Rather, the city is comprised of a hodgepodge of zones that intermix if not overlap.)

Rather than trying to connect existing nodes with new infrastructure (again too expensive, for too few people, and doesn’t scale well), a more important goal should be to adapt existing infrastructure to real world needs. In short, paying attention to foot/bike commuters rather than literally and figuratively running over them.

This could be as simple as protected (walled) bike lanes and bus lanes to more complex initiatives such as accelerating and ensuring the safety of short hops from zone to zone via real-time monitoring of traffic cameras or cell phone signals or virtualizing the workplace or any number of things.

This is important, for even as infrastructure must adapt to the city, the city also shapes around its infrastructure going forward. A future Delhi with a NYC style subway system is extremely unlikely given the challenges outlined above. Instead, we’re more likely to see the current mix of zones build up rather cluster. Something a metro system does very little to address.

(This post doesn’t even consider the security dangers of a metro system in India.)

Bookmark It

Here we see a fledgling specialized force with more firepower growing organically in response to Naxals, railway platform gangs, and a general lack of effective weaponry/training.

A brainchild of superintendent of railway police (Tatanagar) Jeetendra Prasad Singh, the 12-member team was formed recently. The outfit is headed by a sub-inspector and also comprises assistant sub-inspectors (ASIs) and constables.

“The team is basically a rushing party. It’s primary task is to respond quickly to any crime happening in their areas of our jurisdiction,” J. Kerketta, deputy superintendent of police (Tatanagar), said.

According to him, sub-inspector Vinod Kumar Singh has been appointed head of the team. “The team also includes ASIs and constables. Havildars have also been included in the party. Four members each comprise the armed and lathi party,” Kerketta said, adding they were confident that crime in railway areas would be controlled with this initiative.

Here’s some thinking on reforming rapid reaction forces.

Bookmark It

Tangentally, the Indo-Asian News Service reports that the railways in Chhatisgarh are clamoring for additional security forces. (Another topic covered extensively here.) This is due to the extreme reliance of the industry upon railway systems:

The railway line is critical to the steel industry. The country’s largest iron ore miner in the public sector, NMDC, relies on it to transport iron ore from its Kirandul and Bacheli mines in Dantewada district to Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh.

The threat:

In the latest incident of damage to tracks on the K-K line on April 20, Maoists had removed clips from the rail tracks that led to derailment of 17 wagons of a goods train loaded with some 4,000 tonnes of NMDC’s iron ore.

Bookmark It

“A job with the central government is a huge achievement. It means they don’t just provide for you, but also the family. At least now we will be able to have some savings as well. Plus we will get accommodation for family,” says Nirmala.

Bookmark It

As many as 1,473 police personnel would be on duty on May 8, including two deputy superintendents of police (DySPs), seven circle police inspectors, 66 sub-inspectors/assistant sub-inspectors, 165 head constables, 449 constables, 397 Home Guards, 22 armed head constables and 132 armed constables. As many as 995 police personnel would be on duty on May 12, including two DySPs, four circle police inspectors, 50 sub inspectors/assistant sub-inspectors, 91 head constables, 272 constables, 212 Home Guards, 22 armed head constables and 132 armed constables.

Additionally, alcohol sales will be banned the day of.

Bookmark It

“The kind of device used by the ultras on Saturday can be triggered at will, years after they are planted. We suspect many such devices have been planted in different states,” said an official.

This kind of has had the added effect of blurring the line between contractor and Naxal, increasing government suspicion of someone who was probably as much of a victim as it was.

The episode also points to Maoists’ connivance with road contractors in the exercise, leading the state police to round up many people in the area on Sunday.

Bookmark It

“It has come to the notice of the government that some Maoist leaders have been directly contacting certain NGOs and intellectuals to propagate their ideology and persuade them to take steps, which would provide support to the CPI (Maoist) ideology.”

In doing so, the government has created a fault line – a wedge issue along with individuals and groups are forced to choose sides. As it stands, its a very broad statement.

Anyone who critiques the government approach to either the Naxals (increased militarization in the form of Operation Green Hunt) or development (a failure to support the agricultural base) is vulnerable to criminal prosecution. Any groups that are, either appropriate (as defined by this statement) or erroneously prosecuted will end up landing squarely in the Naxal camp, whether they initially supported the insurgency or were simply fighting for adivasi rights.

Bookmark It

“We are ready with a blueprint to prevent the Mittals’ entry into the region,” newly appointed Maoist spokesman, Rakeshji told Hindustan Times.

Bookmark It

Some quotes:

• They said the gram panchayat had not informed them of the welfare programmes meant for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes despite numerous requests.

• A schoolteacher, who did not wish to be named, said that the situation in the village had remained nearly the same for the last seven years. Money released by the Government does not reach the people, he said.

• There is no bridge across the Suvarna. Where has all the money announced as special package to naxal-affected areas gone? I started this chicken centre to add to my family’s income. One cannot depend on agriculture alone, he said.

Bookmark It

Between 40 to 60 percent of the water pumped into the distribution networks never reaches the users in most cities of India.

Bookmark It

Here’s a guy in Hyderbad who used the Naxal ‘brand’ for years and extorted a “huge amount” of money.

Mallampally Raju, after selecting reputed doctors used to approach them claiming himself as a close associate of People’s War Group (PWG).

Then, he would demand money by threatening to kill their family members, police said.

Bookmark It

Mani Ratnam, one of my my favorite directors (Dil Se did an amazing job tackling Kashmiri terrorism dynamics), is tackling Naxalism in his upcoming Raavan (a retelling of the epic Ramayan and Naxal leader Kobad Ghandy’s life story).

Comes out June 18.

Bookmark It

“We have lost Rs 500 crore because of Naxal bandhs and obstructions,” she said adding incidents of attacks by Naxals nearly doubled to 58 in 2009 from 30 in the previous year. 56 incidents were reported in 2007, she said.

Click here for more on railway systems disruption.

Bookmark It

My work here has been gaining traction in the press and government, military, corporate circles, slowly and steadily, and I always welcome the opportunity to speak to more people (email me!), but this is a labor of love, so my articles and posts are less frequent than I’d like.

When I’m not doing this, or building a company,  I’m writing a book about what the future of India looks and can look like. How failing infrastructure, a precariously positioned economy (built upon pillaging its agricultural plank), a robust black market, all enabled by a long-standing low-intensity Naxal insurgency that has embraced the tactic of systems disruption contributes to an India that looks much more like the red corridor than most are willing to admit.

But all is not without hope. Gandhi outlined how to apply information flows to a decentralized development strategy that can yield long-run sustainable growth. We can bring that into the 21′st century and correct the errant course of current pursuits.

I’m your host, Shlok Vaidya. You can read about my background here.

Bookmark It

The real way to do what Mitra’s trying to get at is to take it a step further, and help direct the development of what systems are already in place. Properly managed, the Indian state can dampen the violence, while accelerating the development being led by Naxals.

(Thanks to Mark for the link.)

Bookmark It

India has been a independent democracy for more than sixty years and in that period, successive governments have successfully created two very different nations, a minority one in its developed, parasitic, affluent urban areas and the other deprived, undeveloped, poverty stricken and criminally exploited in its villages, populated by its majority poor citizens. An affluent, westernised, high net worth India and a poor, illiterate, undeveloped Bharat.

The war on the Naxalites, Maoists will not be won by police action. If the Maoists, Naxalites are to be defeated, the government will have to work to bring about ‘Gram Swaraj’ that the Father of the Nation envisaged. An India made up of self sufficient, self reliant, equitably developed villages and villagers.

Tushar is absolutely right.  This is largely the focus of my upcoming book. (For those asking – I’m still moving on that project, albeit slowly.)

Bookmark It

SECURITY INCIDENTS:

CASUALTIES:

Bookmark It

• Project force to deter Naxal activism.
• Decapitation by elite units.
• Massive deployment of Army troops.
• Continue displacement to cleanse the area of civilians.
• Utilize air power as necessary.

Unfortunately, this won’t work. Why? It is predicated on isolating the civilian population from the Naxals. Accomplishing that task is not a simple matter of carting people out of the area of operations. In fact, it’s a complex approach that cannot be reliant on force in order to be effective. The alternative is uprooting old homes, displacing families etc, all of which actually offer a disincentive to joining the state, not relief. Coupling this with air power is a recipe for disaster.

Bookmark It

It was a mistake to have some jawans take the anti-landmine vehicle. “That vehicle was in front. We were walking behind it. Suddenly there was a blast and the vehicle went up in the air. All the jawans inside were killed in an instant. We lost about 15 men in that single explosion. Thereafter, it was mayhem,” he recalled.

The landmines must have been laid during the night, the jawan said. The attack took place around 7am when the CRPF was passing through a dense forest surrounded by hills. The Maoists had arrayed themselves in `V’ formation and awaiting the CRPF contingent in the thick green foliage. They first triggered the landmines and then began firing indiscriminately running down from the hills from all directions.

This, like most attacks on state forces, are designed to:

• Garner weaponry. Indeed, most Naxals weapons are looted from state police forces.

• Establish control of an area. Though it may not be used regularly, this temporary autonomous zone is critical.

• Provoke retaliation. It looks as though this play is working: “”All I can say at this moment is that our resolve is firm and in the coming days and months, we will give a much firmer and fitting reply to the murderers (Maoists),” Pillai said.”

Bookmark It

New Delhi’s counter-insurgency strategy is rooted in a flawed assumption—development in the eastern and central tribal heartlands will help eradicate adivasi poverty and destroy the Naxalite’s support base. Neither is likely to happen. Without a radical overhaul of the area’s governance structure, development will do little more than accelerate dislocation and deepen alienation. What India needs to do is provide greater autonomy to the adivasis and improved social infrastructure in the Naxalite heartland. While recent developments such as Forest Rights Act, granting formal land titles to adivasis, are signs that things may be changing, so far it has been a case of too little too late. The adivasi themselves must be given an increased role and say in both forest management and investment.

To paraphrase, Michael is right when he says, the brutal truth is that this massive, top-down change is simply not going to happen. The solution lays in decentralized development methodologies. A coherent set of practices (many already deeply embedded into the adivasi culture), technologies, and processes that can yield progress by bootstrap (the only sustainable growth trajectory).

I should probably put together an article on my thinking sometime soon.

Bookmark It

Attorney General Daniel Garcia Leal said that unknown gunmen who had set up a fake checkpoint on the road shot and even threw grenades at the victims, the state-run Notimex news agency reported.

The victims were in a pickup truck, returning to their homes after having traveled to pick up money to support their school as part of a government social program, Garcia Leal said.

The gunmen motioned the truck to stop but the victims, out of fear of being robbed or assaulted, did not comply, the attorney general said.

The article makes an error, however. The blockade was not a “fake checkpoint.” The insurgency was not trying to pretend to be the state. It set up an a narco-checkpoint, independent of the state. This is a sign of power, not weakness.

Bookmark It

Expressing concern over such attacks, Railway Minister Mamata Banerjee had said earlier this month in Parliament that naxal bandhs and strikes have dealt a blow of nearly 40 per cent to the business of the Railways.

More on India’s vulnerability to railway disruption is available here.

Bookmark It

The center of the action last week was the bustling commercial city of Monterrey, where the authorities said criminals commandeered dozens of tractor-trailer trucks and other vehicles on Thursday and Friday to block more than 30 streets and highways. The blockades, called narcobloqueos by the Mexican news media, resulted in traffic chaos, with the trucks parked horizontally across highways and vehicles jammed up behind them.

This is an escalation from when the gangs were paying individuals to ‘demonstrate’ (a la a flashmob) , also in Monterrey.

Bookmark It

The Yadavs are members of a new economic caste in India: nouveau riche farmers. Land acquisition for expanding cities and industry is one of the most bitterly contentious issues in India, rife with corruption and violent protests. Yet in some areas it has created pockets of overnight wealth, especially in the outlying regions of the capital, New Delhi.

By Western standards, few of these farmers are truly rich. But in India, where the annual per capita income is about $1,000 and where roughly 800 million people live on less than $2 a day, some farmers have gotten windfalls of several million rupees by selling land. Over the years, farmers and others have sold more than 50,000 acres of farmland as Noida has evolved into a suburb of 300,000 people with shopping malls and office parks.

It turns out they’re not talking about farmers, but actually real estate speculators. If anything, this is bubble behavior (resplendent with examples of excess wealth being squandered on helicopters).

Real farmers are actually suffering. An estimated 200,000-500,000 have committed suicide in the last decade due to overwhelming debt, and a reliance on economic hit men (huge corporations exploiting globalization’s false promise of cheap genetically modified seeds and affordable chemicals to increase yield).

As the farming network blinks out of existence, either by selling land for bubble development or by suicide, the results will be felt across the board. The fundamentals are, all too often, dying.

Bookmark It

“They were getting instructions from Pakistan to execute their activities here,” Raghuvanshi said.

Bookmark It

“Those spies that are currently present in the Gulf must leave the region within one week—if not then we will cross that bridge when we come to it,” Khalfan reportedly said. When asked whether the spies he was talking about were holders of European passports, Tamim said “Europeans and others,” but offered no further detail.

Aside from oil, Dubai’s sole purpose has been to act as a hub of international connectivity. For decades, it has acted as a financial hub for both the white and black economy. Anyone who wanted to ride the globalization boom routed lots and lots of transactions through Dubai. Dawood Ibrahim ran many of his operations from Dubai, but so did countless other bread-and-butter corporations.

However, as the Mabhouh assassination reveals, aware of its dual-role, Dubai is trying to demarcate a line that must not be crossed – no killing on our soil. This attempt to surpress ‘white-black connectivity’ (that is, the underbelly of the white economy – corporate espionage, traditional spying, etc) must be managed very, very carefully if it is to succeed.

Banning all spies is not going to happen. Not without banning all underworld figures. Or terrorist outfits. Or corporations. In effect, by trying to unwind one of the most saturated spy-environments in the world, Dubai seeks to unwind itself- because it’s only purpose was to enable that kind of connectivity.

Bookmark It

An officer from Bandra police station said, “We are currently studying the layout of a prominent five-star hotel and the roads around it to identifying spots where we can create a cordon to fight back any possible attack. This exercise will help the combat team to familiarise with the area and deal with any emergency effectively. We are also in the process of sensitising another favourite restaurant frequented by foreign tourists and celebrities.” Once the plan is in place, senior officials plan to conduct random mock drills to improve the response time of the staff of each police station.

This is useful information, but, unfortunately, they seem to think that, with sufficient training, rapid response forces will act quickly and effectively enough to save the day. This is extremely unlikely, given the complexity of the operating environment (lots of avenues of approach, dense population).

What would be a useful exercise is collaboration with the community, to prepare not just private security guards, but also cafe/hotel owners, staff, as well as the general public. Rather than setting in stone specific evacuation routes (which are susceptible to terrorists wielding them as weapons), the correct approach is to embed enough familiarity with security crises that people (rather, leaders) react effectively.

Bookmark It

“If we are Maowadis, you are MoUwadis,” he tells me, indicating that displacement due to large scale land acquisitions resulted in the growth of Maoism in the region.

Shafi Rahman of India Today spends some time in the autonomous zone established by the Naxalites. It’s a fantastic article that reflects many of the trends I’ve explored in this weblog since 2007, so I quote liberally:

Local governance, based on local revenue:

• Janathana Sarkars collect “taxes”, decide on local disputes, fix prices of local products, run local amenities and provide basic healthcare.

• “For the first time in ages, we have done collective farming last year. We have stopped approaching police over disputes and the committee decides over the disputes,” says Manji.

• Inspector in-charge at Adhaba police in Gajapati district, Devendra Mahapatra, is well-protected in his station with a cathedral-like gate and a platoon of CRPF stationed in the premises. As Maoists established grip over local dispute handling, the number of criminal cases filed in the station have come down from over 300 five years ago to 48 last year.

Distribution of wealth/land:

• Around 59 work teams with up to 70 members in each were set up last year to prepare land for millet, paddy and dal. In Bastar alone, around 1,436 acres of land were seized from landlords. Of this, 1,057 acres were distributed to 482 families and 310 acres was put under the control of the Janathana Sarkar and 65 acres were given to the militia.

Decentralized development:

• The mode of adivasi agriculture in all these divisions was primitive, rarely using cattle for agriculture. “We are now using cattle to plough the fields. We were used to building tanks in areas were water collected naturally in earlier days and water was carried manually from these tanks. Now we are using canals to take water to these points,” notes Manji

• They launched a campaign against the tribal belief that women shouldn’t be allowed in certain agricultural activities like sowing seeds and reaping the harvest. The tribals are also being introduced to a new script for tribal languages, which has so far been scriptless. Chloroquine, an anti-malaria medicine, is given in packets replete with slogans – Soshiko Athanko, Soshito Shruthi (Terror for the oppressors, dear for the oppressed).

Selective connectivity (essentially, India’s skeleton is being controlled by the Naxals):

The Maoists are allowing signposts of the state to come in, wherever it fits their plans. The NREG roads have been approved selectively, ensuring that they don’t make easy passage for security forces into Maoist hideouts.

Most of the beaten paths are mined. We avoid these roads, move forward using GPS in favour of a tougher journey by setting up new paths. The moment we enter into these forests, the Maoists light up torches and give signals to their counterparts around, making it easy for them to retreat,” says HK Jasoria, Officer Commander at CRPF station in Gajapati district.

Bookmark It

The Seema Andhra leaders today are trying to term Telangana people as naxalites, trying to create a fear in the Center and suppress the student movement. This propaganda has moved to the internet, now the Andhra people take pleasure in calling all Pro-Telangana people naxalites. They too show their indifference and apathy when young kids from Telangana die, committing suicides.

I agree with Michael on this one. Rather than revealing an insurgency independent of the Naxals, this movement reveals just how much the Naxals have eroded governance in the region, creating the conditions for a Talangana movement, and underpinning the kind of connectivity that enables this kind of insurgency. In short, the Naxal is the keystone species of the rural Indian ecosystem.

Bookmark It

Glad to see I’m not alone in this space anymore. I look forward to collaborating with both of these guys. Lots of work to be done.

Bookmark It

• The leaves in the forests are about to shed, and the Naxals would be weak during that time period. The latter sounds too much like a government information operation to be taken seriously. Naxals, who spend their entire lives operating in a particular kind of environment, will not likely be too worried about

• The Naxals are weak, and are looking for three days of peace to recoup, renew, and attack again. There is no evidence of this. If anything, an attack that took place mere hours after the offer of a truce proves that the ability for the Naxals to maintain a normal OPTEMPO is intact. This is also revealing for a different reason – it attests to the operating structure of Naxals. It is not a hierarchy with strong command and control links. Instead, it’s a ecosystem of violence, with disparate parts.

Rather than approaching this with the assumption that the Naxals are engaging from a position of weakness, it’s far more likely for them to be engaging in an information operation.

In publicly expressing the ability to negotiate with the standing government, to the point where Chidambaram, the Minister of Home Affairs, has released his fax number publicly), the Naxals are showing that they are a serious threat.

Longer run: they’re showing that Chidambaram is weak, and that stronger measures must be taken against them. In doing so, they hope to provoke an overreach that alienates more rural Indians and strengthens their numbers even more.

Bookmark It

A recent study shows that government spending on education, health, electricity, roads, water and other infrastructure [in Naxal affected areas] is appallingly low, far below the state average. Now, labour ministry data reveals that there are only 196 ITCs and ITIs in the 33 districts reeling under left-wing insurgency, compared to 3110 in non-affected areas in the same states.

(Emphasis mine.)

Bookmark It

“The possibility of military confrontation with any country has gone down but the concept of homeland security is expanding,” said an official from Ministry of Defence.

“Currently the products in the defence and security market are being diversified to cater to the need of para-militaries and police forces also. Many systems used by the police and para-militaries and conventional armed forces are similar in nature like Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and MPVs,” he added.

“The defence market is no more a defence market; it has become a security market which is providing equipments and services for armed forces and central para military as well as police forces,” said Deba R Mohanty, senior fellow and a prominent defence analyst from Observer Research Foundation (ORF).

Bookmark It

My early take on this still-developing situation. This was an attack designed to exploit the ever-present cultural rift between Indian Muslims and Hindus. The hope is to provoke an overreaction by all parties, including fundamentalists from both Hindi and Muslim populations. The historical goal for this kind of activity has been riots led by extremists that kill hundreds.

The conditions may be ripe for this sectarian conflict. Maharashtra has been experiencing significant activity along its cultural fault-lines recently, including:

• Attempts to ban the Shah Rukh Khan movie “My Name is Khan.”
• Standard resistance to Valentines Day by fundamentalists.
• Banning non-local taxi drivers.

Bookmark It

Thanks to Richard Bottemley of VJ Movement for passing this along.

Bookmark It

After lobbying for 3 decades for its own railway station with no success, the village pooled $45,000 under the control of an ad-hoc corporation (the “gram seva samiti” or service committee) and contacted the railway system for system specifications. They then spent two years building a concrete foundation, adding water and electricity, and erecting a ticket counter.

The Indian Railways approved the node and now has seven trains stopping there on a regular basis. Great example of how innovation at the local level can yield MAJOR rewards for those in that community. We have seen this kind of thing before, but never at this level.

This is also an example of how treating the railway system as a PLATFORM (something I spent the summer of 2007 working on) can both enable robust growth as embed resiliency into the system.

Bookmark It

The education system is a core system, alongside the roads, economic activity, social structure etc. Naxals attack it primarily because of this reason – to destroy legitimacy and limit government influence. The CRP’s anti-Naxal operatives however, have to use schools because, in many cases, they are the only defensible buildings (because it was built using central government funding) in the village.

In essence, school systems act as the the feeble skeleton of the nation state.

Bookmark It

Interesting:

• Sustainable. In addition to the tunnel, the Naxals used on-site materials to set machinery on fire (rather than bringing their own explosives).
• Information operations. Security personnel were overpowered but not injured. Additionally, propaganda left on the scene warned of supplying the industrial centers (seen as evil) with power.

Bookmark It

To crash their only tether to the rest of the system is to sever their lifeline to the promise of a new Indian future. Meanwhile, attackers will simply shift online to secure VOIP systems.

Bookmark It

However, the Tamil diaspora that provided the seed and growth capital for the insurgency has not been effectively dealt with. We’re witnessing the basis for an insurgency operating without a country. It will be interesting to see how this funding redirects as the diaspora seeks out and seeds alternatives.

Bookmark It

Unfortunately, this Lord of the Rings strategy (a major and epic battle to end conflict), does not address the core problems that the Naxals exploit. In fact, the casualties that a military offensive will generate will actually just exacerbate the situation.

The correct way to compete with the keystone Naxal platform (the set of violent services that enable and drive the black market in affected areas) is not escalation but rather to focus on mitigation by participating and shifting the black market.

Bookmark It

This is a lose-lose strategy. Look for Naxals to bait IAF aircraft by peppering them with fire over population centers. Eventually, the IAF will either shift routes ( a win for Naxals) or fire back (also a win for Naxals).

Bookmark It

We know that the Taliban are not one monolithic group, but several small groups each with their own goals and area of operations. That is a weakness that begs to be exploited. We know that they have village auxiliaries who support hard corps fighters who travel around in groups from 10 – 50.

We also know that the Taliban are very good at setting up roadblocks to collect taxes and control the population. Roadblocks, were used effectively to prevent voting materials getting distributed in the 20 Aug elections and also to prevent Afghans from voting.

They are also quite effective at preventing IOs, NGOs and Afghan civil servants from getting out and working with the people.

Bookmark It

• The insane acceptance rate ~ .05%. Students focus full time on the entrance exam – which accounts for 100% of the entrance requirements. This is a function of wealth, and has created a tiered, cottage industry of  expensive private ‘tuitions‘ or private tutoring schools. Students skip high school classes and instead spend four years preparing for the IIT/IIM entrance exam.

• Wealth.  Only students with means can game the system in this way. Students who do participate in the traditional K-12 system are unable to play on a competitive field. This has led to a surge in the amount of fly-by-night tier two and three colleges, as well as a major decrease in the quality of graduate.

This, of course, has directly contributed to a major dampening of talent and productivity. In an effort to deal with this perpetual gaming, the government plans to also take into account performance from 9-12 grade. However, this only further minimizes the amount of students the institutions can take in. This is unsustainable, irresponsible, and does not take into account the very technology that graduates of these institutions are building.

If approached correctly, these institutions could be leveraged as a way of furthering the entrepreneurial spirit and economic productivity of the country rather than remaining an impotent institution for the elite.

Properly focused, these institutions could also prove to be a hotbed of innovation that fixes local problems, rather than simply act as a channel by which graduates can enter the factory-model world of outsourced knowledge labor.

Bookmark It

The writer has argued that in view of the above, China in its own interest and the progress of Asia, should join forces with different nationalities like the Assamese, Tamils, and Kashmiris and support the latter in establishing independent nation-States of their own, out of India. In particular, the ULFA (United Liberation Front of Asom) in Assam, a territory neighboring China, can be helped by China so that Assam realises its national independence.

-Zhong Guo Zhan Lue Gang

Several readers (and my father) sent me this article today detailing a report by the China International Institute for Strategic Studies. This is hardly an unexpected development for readers of this site (or those of friend Steven Pressfield’s “It’s the Tribes Stupid“). Some quick notes:

• From a global systems perspective. We are seeing this same dynamic emerge in every modern battlefield. The only lasting solution to insurgency is open source counter insurgency – evidenced by the Iraqi Awakening and Salwa Judum.

• This type of fragmentation (chaos) is inevitable (mostly due to technological empowerment and a gutted global economy).

• The question then is what form this chaos takes. (Controlled Chaos.) The alternative is the kind of chaos we now see in Pakistan as a result of an inability to co-opt rather than crash subnational movements. (Unbridled Chaos.)

All is not yet lost, however. Controlled fragmentation (decentralization) to resilient communities is still doable.

• India has an intellectual leg up on this in Gandhi’s Swarj and Swadeshi thinking, a cultural ability to deal with local disconnectedness, and a proven ability to deal with significant levels of controlled chaos (poverty, crime) at the city level.

Note: Unfortunately, my own work on bringing Gandhi’s thinking forward has had to be pushed to the back burner. Very busy on some exciting stuff in order to pay the bills, hence the lack of posts.

Bookmark It

This picks up on a meme I’ve been working on for a while. Jug Suraiya discussed the multiple centers of gravity that are emerging at the sub-state level yesterday. Would have been nice to be cited rather than summarized but that’s the nature of providing open-source analysis.

Bookmark It

Free of Left shackles, the Centre on Friday finally told West Bengal what security and intelligence agencies had been urging it to do for a long time — ban Maoists in the state.

By further isolating the Naxals, the state will further remove itself from the actual act of governance (as compared to the perception of state legitimacy). This actually helps drive the dynamic that this action is ostensibly supposed to bring to an end.

Lalgarh’s equilibrium has yet to be found.

Bookmark It

A Naxal-backed outfit calling itself People’s Committee Against Police Atrocities (PCAPA) had set up a semi-permanent road block (effectively turning this major artery into a PCAPA toll road). In response to this road system hijack, the insufficient police force ‘outsourced’ night law enforcement to a legitimized militia (along the lines of Salwa Judum) calling itself the Maoist Resistance Force (MRF).

However, instead of just guarding the sides of the road, the MRF took down the toll booth. Open source intelligence reveals that the Naxals responded by conducting a decapitation attack on the MRF as well as the government currently in place (which runs the police force). Three senior officers were murdered, and several government official homes and businesses were simultaneously looted.

The situation has yet to reach a state of equilibrium.

Bookmark It

As I learned during my experience prototyping this type of analysis during the Mumbai attacks – something the legacy think tank world reprimanded me for – tapping into global information flows in this way is an exhausting endeavor. They deserve credit for their efforts. It can save lives.

You can follow them at @ChrisAlbon and @Steve_Schippert .

Bookmark It

We will know this transition has taken place once the insurgency absorbs conventional military capability (the conventional arsenal) or starts crashing critical networks. (For much more on this dynamic, consult my colleague John Robb’s Global Guerrillas weblog.)

Bookmark It